A Gathering Storm

Global Warming Is Real

Dated: 4 Jan 2009

Posted by admin

By Frank Schiavone

A gathering storm (in the words of Winston Churchill) is on the horizon and it spells real trouble for mankind. The planet is warming and we are the dominant cause.

There, I said it. I know this statement will send many into convulsive spasms. Climate change, the politically correct label for it, never fails to generate detractors. There are no shortage of deniers, contrarians, and ideologues who will argue that 1) the planet is not warming 2) it’s warming but so what 3) it’s a problem but not worth the effort and money that is required to mitigate it or 4) global warming is caused by “natural variability” and we’re helpless to do anything about it so why try.

These folks have other good reasons to be skeptical:

• They detest Al Gore
• They’re not too fond of us bothersome environmentalists who they label as alarmists and tricksters
• We itty-bitty humans couldn’t possibly make an impact on this big old planet and its limitless sky.
• The Sun’s getting hotter (or colder), not sure which
• Milankovitch Cycles (the Earth’s Eccentricity, Axial Tilt, and Precession)
• Volcanic eruptions
• Climatologists are getting rich on all those grants and are America-hating, Liberals
• A distrust of science and an abiding faith in their own intuition
• It snowed in May.

A sizable majority of climate scientists (those that are actually doing the research and fieldwork) are in agreement about this looming crisis. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that most of the warming observed during the past 50 years is attributable to human activities. Its findings have been publicly endorsed by the national academies of science of all G-8 countries, as well as those of China, India and Brazil. The Royal Society of Canada – together with the national academies of fifteen other nations – also issued a joint statement on climate change that stated, in part: “The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change.”

The IPCC is not a lone voice. All major scientific bodies in the United States whose members’ expertise is directly related to climate science have issued similar statements. For example, the National Academy of Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins: “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise”. Its report further states, “The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue”.

In addition, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that “the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling”.

Yes, there is disagreement about how our complex climate system operates. There are no party lines when it comes to science, at least there shouldn’t be. The deniers are quick to exploit the “lack of consensus” and call it uncertainty.

But there is no uncertainty about the thermal direction our planet is heading in and what the primary culprits are – greenhouse gases. The Earth warmed on average by .6° Centigrade (or roughly one degree Fahrenheit) during the 20th Century. The United States generally became warmer and wetter but changes vary by region. Some parts of the South cooled while northern latitudes have warmed. Alaska has warmed 2-4° C (four times the global average). Much of the southern and eastern US receives more rainfall than 100 years ago while the Southwest receives less.

Simply, changes in solar activity and volcanic eruptions do not fully account for the increase in temperature. Moreover, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow there’s sufficient inertia in the system to keep the boil up for decades or longer. Most climate scientists believe we should expect a minimum 1 to 2 degree overall rise in global temperature by 2050. Again, we’re talking Centigrade. If the projections are correct, places like Minnesota, Canada’s Northwest Territory and Great Britain will enjoy more balmy weather with much less snow. On the other hand, the Sahel in Africa, China’s sprawling loess plateau, Peru’s Rimac River basin, southern Europe and the Mediterranean, India’s Northern (wheat-producing) states, and America’s Heartland and Southwest may not be so fortunate. By the way, this is a short list.

A recent report by the US Climate Change Science Program concludes that “temperature increases, increasing CO2 levels and altered patterns of precipitation are already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity”. This same report states that the expected increases in temperature over the next century “will be caused by greenhouse gas emissions that have already happened”.

Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and continued research is required to provide a better understanding of climate dynamics. Further, the question of what to do about climate change is also still open to debate. That said, there is a scientific consensus on the reality of human-induced climate change. Climate scientists, not ones to yell from the rooftops, have been consistent and clear. We need to heed their warnings, for our grandchildren will surely hold us accountable if we do not.