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The Greenhouse Effect is Established Science

By Frank Schiavone

Anyone with even the slimmest connection to the natural world can see that something dramatic is occurring. Climate change is real. Ecosystems across the planet are being impacted, most adversely. And the thing we don’t like to talk about is that it’s only going to get worse (even if we acted immediately and in some meaningful way). From a human standpoint, global warming has the potential to kill a lot of the world’s population with drought the number one menace.

The rate and scale of the present warming is unprecedented in the course of human civilization and this warming just happens to coincide with a roughly 200 year period that began with the Industrial Revolution. I wonder what the mathematical probability of this happening by mere chance would be.

Climate scientists do not deny the existence of other “drivers”. And no, the changes have not been linear. There are other forces at play. But there is a scientific consensus about anthropogenic “forcing” and the overall direction has been up. The science is established and confirms the fundamental role greenhouse gases play in “infrared trapping” and the Earth’s climate systems. What deniers refer to as trace molecules – CO2, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide – actually keeps our planet from becoming one big snowball.

It’s time to push the obstructionists aside and move forward on this critical issue. Our window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The time for jawboning and “analysis paralysis” is past. Denilaists have mounted a large-scale effort to muddy the waters. It’s time to dispel their myths, their lies, and their delusions.

THERE IS NO CONSENSUS
A recent survey of 3,146 Earth scientists found that the vast majority agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising and that human activity is a significant contributing factor. The study released in January 2009 was conducted by the University of Illinois. The scientists surveyed were listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute’s Directory of Geoscience Departments.

About 90 percent of the scientists agreed that the Earth was warming while 82 percent attributed human responsibility. The strongest consensus on the causes of global warming came from climatologists who are active in climate research, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role. To no one’s surprise, petroleum geologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47% believing in human involvement. Interestingly, meteorologists also had their doubts with only 64% believing that the warming was human induced.

Peter Doran, a survey author, concludes “most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon”. Doran was, however, unfazed by the near-unanimous agreement by climatologists. “They’re the ones who study and publish on climate science. So I guess the take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you’re likely to believe in global warming and humankind’s contribution to it. The debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes,” said Doran.

THERE IS NO PROOF
Changes in polar temperatures are not consistent with natural climate changes and scientists now believe they have conclusive proof that human activity is responsible for rising temperatures in both Polar Regions.

Research conducted by the Climatic Research Unit at the United Kingdom’s University of East Anglia (UEA) demonstrates for the first time that anthropogenic climate change is responsible for warming at both the Arctic and Antarctic. Their findings are published in the science journal Nature Geoscience.

Previous studies have observed rises in temperature at both poles, but none until now, have formally attributed the cause to human activity. Using up-to-date gridded data sets, scientists led by the UEA observed mean land surface temperatures in the Arctic over a 100 year period. For the Antarctic the observation period was shorter — 50 years — as there is no station data available before 1945.
They then applied an average simulated response using two computer models. The first examined natural forcing — events such as solar cycles and volcanic activity which can affect temperatures.
The second model simulated natural variability combined with anthropogenic forcing — which included greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone depletion and sulphate aerosol.

Scientists discovered that the observed changes in Arctic and Antarctic temperatures are not consistent with natural forcing alone. Dr Alexey Karpechko states, “In both cases the accelerations are not consistent with natural forcing, which means that natural forcing alone cannot produce such a warming. So in a sense, we can say conclusively that this [warming trend at the poles] is due to human influence.”

The Antarctic data demonstrates that man-made warming is indeed happening on the continent and is of particular interest given that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 indicated that anthropogenic climate change had been detected in every continent except Antarctica.

“There is strong warming in the Antarctic Peninsula,” Karpechko said. “But for several decades there has been a slight cooling of the rest of the continent. This slight cooling is due to circulation changes which are partly caused by ozone depletion. This is why there has been a bit of confusion as to what is happening in Antarctica. But we expect a recovery of the ozone layer in the future. We may also expect that the Antarctic warming trends will emerge more clearly.”

IT’S GETTING COLDER NOT WARMER
Deniers claim global temperatures have not risen since 1998 which is patently untrue. They have risen since then, though without breaking the record set in the exceptionally hot year of 1998. Indeed, the years since 2000 have all been among the eight hottest years on record.

Last year was the eighth warmest year on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The world’s temperature in 2008 tied that of 2001 according to the center.

Preliminary calculations show the world’s average temperature for 2008 was 0.88 degree Fahrenheit above the 20th Century average of 57.0 degrees F.

The finding means that all of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1997. The climate center also noted that the annual combined global land and ocean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.09 degree F (0.05 degree C) per decade since 1880 with the rate of warming increasing over the past 30 years.

NASA, which uses a slightly different method of calculating temperatures, has rated 2008 as the ninth warmest on record.

IT’S THE SUN, STUPID
Peer-reviewed scientific literature confirms that changes in the Sun’s irradiance and long-term solar cycles (Milankovitch Cycles) do not account for the current warming.

There are three Milankovitch Cycles. The one most talked about is the Eccentricity Cycle which takes roughly 100,000 years to complete and corresponds roughly to past glacial periods. The Earth’s orbit changes shape from elliptical to nearly circular and back to elliptical. The other two cycles Axial Tilt (from shallow angle to steep angle and back to shallow angle every 41,000 years) and Precession (the revolution or wobble takes roughly 21,000 years to come full circle).

Obviously, these astronomical cycles impact solar radiation and no one disputes the role they play in the Earth’s climate systems. Climate scientists, however, do not attribute the current warming to Milankovitch Cycles because they believe these cycles have intersected in a “sweet spot” or an ideal place where all three cycles produce just the right amount of warmth –not too hot, not too cold – for life to thrive.

Moreover, satellites are recording no discernible increases in temperature in the Earth’s Stratosphere which would seem to counter the theory that the Sun is getting hotter.

According to the World Radiation Center there has been no increase in solar irradiance since at least 1978, when satellite observations began. This means that for the last thirty years, while the temperature has been rising fastest, the sun has not changed.

Moreover, there has been work done reconstructing the solar irradiance record over the last century, before satellites were available. According to the Max Planck Institute, where this work is being done, there has been no increase in solar irradiance since around 1940. Although the reconstruction does show an increase in solar radiance during the first part of the 20th century (which coincides with the warming from around 1900 until the 1940s) it’s not enough to explain all the warming from those years. The center does, however, acknowledge it is responsible for a large portion of the warming that occurred during the early 20th century.

GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSED BY WATER VAPOR
Deniers frequently use this ploy, putting the proverbial cart before the horse. To a person, all climatologists recognize the role water vapor plays in the greenhouse effect. All climate models or climate textbooks address the role water vapor plays. It is the strongest greenhouse gas, contributing 36% to 66% to climatic conditions, 66% to 85% when you factor clouds. It is however, not considered a climate forcing because the amount of H2O in the air basically varies as a function of temperature.

If you artificially increase the level of H2O in the air, it rains out immediately. Similarly, due to the abundance of water on the earth’s surface, if you somehow removed all the water from the air, it would quickly be replaced through evaporation.

An interesting scenario: If you could somehow instantly remove all CO2 from the atmosphere, the temperature would begin to drop, causing precipitation to remove H2O from the air, causing even further drops, in a feedback loop that would not end until all liquid water was removed leaving only ice sheets and frozen oceans.

Conversely, excess CO2 put into the air by burning fossil fuels stays in the atmosphere for centuries. This is plenty of time to have substantial and long-lasting effects on the climate system. As the climate warms in response to CO2, humidity rises and increased H2O concentration acts as a significant amplifier of CO2-driven warming, basically doubling or tripling its effect.

Copyright © 2008 Frank Schiavone